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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

lemon, madly in love with state media Chinadaily news aren't you? The tricky part is that by the end of February, "43,000 people in China had tested positive for COVID-19 without immediate symptoms" according to above SCMP article. Three studies below show why rounding up asymptomatic carriers for quarantine may be challenging as lockdowns are being lifted:

1. This study details the "case of an infected individual who never developed symptoms but shed a similar amount of virus to those who did."

www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2001737

2. This study suggests "there were 37,400 people with the virus in Wuhan who authorities did not know about, and who had mild or no symptoms but could still be contagious."

doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593

3. This study "showed people had high levels of the virus in throat swabs early in their illness, when their symptoms were mild, meaning the disease could easily be spread through coughs or sneezes."

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1

Source: World Economic Forum
www.weforum.org/[...]

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

China's National Health Commission (NHC) has unique ways of tallying confirmed cases that are different from world standards:

"Since February, the Covid-19 prevention and control policies issued by the NHC have stipulated that asymptomatic infected individuals are not considered “confirmed cases” and that their numbers should not be released.

However, given numerous studies suggesting that this group is infectious, the NHC has required that, once detected, they be subject to a 14-day quarantine and lab testing, recategorizing them as “confirmed” cases only in the event they develop symptoms.

Caixin previously obtained data that showed Northeast China’s Heilongjiang province had 480 “confirmed cases” on Feb. 25, but had also discovered 104 asymptomatic infected individuals that it left off the public tally.

A March 6 preprint – a study that has not yet been peer-reviewed – by Chinese and American researchers suggested that asymptomatic cases and those with mild symptoms could account for at least 59% of Covid-19 infections, potentially undetected and fueling its spread."

www.caixinglobal.com/[...]

This may be a big deal given one third of confirmed cases may be silent carriers, where "people who are infected by the new coronavirus but show delayed or no symptoms... according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post:"

www.scmp.com/[...]

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Forums > Living in Kunming > Wearing Masks

As both Dan and Michael pointed out, the U.S. CDC needs to protect mask supplies for healthcare workers due to dearth supply. Even the U.S. emergency stockpile of respirators in national storage reserve won't be enough if cases mount and hospitals become overwhelmed, according medical associations.

To be more precise, patients in critical conditions may need treatments that require tracheal intubation. During this medical procedure, the aerosolization of the Covid-19 virus are high risk contagion factors for medical workers in negative pressure chambers. That is why doctors and nurses need tightly fitted respirators (N95) to protect them as oppose to water-resistant surgical masks that leave vulnerable openings on both sides.

Medical workers in such high risk environments need them more than regular civilians. However, that doesn't imply respirators and surgical masks offer us only a "false sense of control" when exposed to viral droplets expelled by sneezes and coughs.

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

Adding to JanJal's response to Trumpster's "hunch(es)," it is less about personally knowing the victims than the systemic disruptions inflicted on individual and societal levels.

Do you personally know the victims whom were buried alive under the rubble of the collapsed quarantine building in Fujian?

You probably still wouldn't know any fallen victims if 1,000 such buildings collapsed simultaneously across China. Yet it would touch home as many of us live in buildings in China.

In comparison, thousands of elders who died from Covid-19 were living their lives normally, like us. We would relate to victims of both fallen concrete or floating covid, reacting empathetically as fear and suspicion would similarly arise...

but toward building contractors, construction materials, inspectors, local government, and real estate developers. For a time, citizens may even fear walking into buildings of their own residence, offices, or shopping malls. A ripple effect denting trust in the system and the economy.

Such are other consequences.

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