Keats School

User profile: BoJoke

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  • RegisteredJuly 25, 2019
  • RegionChina
  • VerifiedYes
  • RegisteredJuly 25, 2019

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Health check form at bus/metro

To verify Liumingke1234's speculation...

The Chinese State Council has announced in a government document published last night (April 9);

"Asymptomatic patients are infectious, and have risk of infecting others" [...]

"The guidelines recommended that local health institutions should report these cases within two hours of receiving positive test results. Then, within 24 hours, county-level health authorities needed to report through the central communicable disease report system."

www.scmp.com/[...]

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

"BEIJING (Reuters) - Mainland China’s new coronavirus cases doubled in 24 hours as the number of infected overseas travellers surged, and new asymptomatic infections more than quadrupled, pressuring authorities to tighten measures to stem local transmissions."

www.reuters.com/[...]

Facts, not fear mongering.

Hopefully this is just a blip. Fingers crossed. We'll see how situation pans out as tens of thousands prepare to leave Wuhan after lifting of lockdown.

www.scmp.com/[...]

[More updates]

China's National Health Commission reported that in the last eight days (March 31 through April 7), of the 885 confirmed infections, 601 were asymptomatic. In other words, roughly 68% of confirmed cases showed no symptoms.

www.scmp.com/[...]

Whatever this means only time will tell. But lets all continue to follow US CDC reversal guidance of covering up our mouths when out in public. We do so not just for our own protection, but for the sake of those more vulnerable in society.

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

Some good news on transparency.

China's National Health Commission (NHC) announced at today's daily briefing that starting tomorrow, Wednesday April 1, asymptomatic Covid-19 confirmed cases will be included in the official tally and disclosed during daily epidemic reports henceforth.

Perhaps the 1,541 asymptomatic cases will be reported tomorrow through the central communicable disease report system.

www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/xwbfbh/wqfbh/42311/42816/index.htm

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

Just a few hours ago, Trevor Noah interviewed Dr. Anthony Fauci, the immunologist and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The medical figurehead we often see at White House press briefings.

At the 5:32 minute mark, Dr. Fauci states that a young and healthy person could be asymptomatic, but "then you could infect another person, who would then infect a vulnerable person, who would then die:"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8

For those without VPN, like lemon, you can download the informative 13:23 minute interview here:

send.firefox.com/[...]

The cautionary language of science speak (e.g. "could," "suggesting," "potentially," or "possibly") takes into account potential errors of data interpretations due to uncertainties and deviations of lab settings versus real world environment. On the opposite spectrum, politicians convey their authority with words of absolute assurance with less accountability to the truth.

The Cornell University medical school physician who served under six consecutive U.S. presidents, also mentioned the aerosolization of the virus, allowing it to suspend for at least hours as a form of transmission risk when asked by Trevor Noah if facemasks should be worn. The Daily Show host asked insight questions throughout this highly recommended interview.

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

lemon wrote, "Personally I think test positive cases should be included in the total positive case number."

So we both agree that citizens who've contracted the virus and have tested positive, should be included in the official tally despite showing no symptoms of illness.

As mentioned above, tens of thousands of patients WERE tested positive for Covid-19 but were intentionally left out from reporting. If these positive test result cases are unaccounted for at present and in foreseeable future, how can we definitively pronounce "near zero discovery of home grown positive cases?" Or proclaim "Wuhan now already for days being new cases free?"

How can we accurately access "flat-line of curve" if we discount these empirical data with the knowledge that positive carriers who do not show symptoms may still harbor low viral load? As above-posted study pointed out, "an infected individual who never developed symptoms but shed a similar amount of virus to those who did." Meaning, they can still possibly infect others without showing symptoms.

You also mentioned that "testing was done because they were in close contact with a person who was tested because they showed symptoms."

I argue contact tracing may become more challenging as lockdowns are lifted, such as in Wuhan. Undetected asymptomatic carriers are now free to roam outside their two-month containment zones of near proximity traceable clusters. Yet now, movements to transport hubs en route to other cities and provinces compound the difficulties of contact tracing as conducted previously during stringent lockdown. To say nothing of testing/reporting transparency of migrant workers in rural versus urban China.

That is my main concern with discrepancy of reporting standards (and rates estimations) in light of economic normalcy of 1.4 billion free flowing movements.

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