Keats School

Forums

Average rent for small apartment?

satii (80 posts) • 0

The reason I asked about primary education is because this may be a concern for the majority of rural families (aspiring or established) that move to cities. If their children can't even attend K-12 due to hukou restrictions, collegiate level may be of concern for the minority of them.

“Prior to this reform, I would have been under pressure to buy a property…”

To your point, I believe the central government has been trying, and thus far succeeded in cooling the property market. Mainly to pivot away from a worrisome economic trend. Which is, the nation's dependency on new debt to generate output growth (i.e. credit intensity of growth).

Rising indebtedness and delinquencies are causes for more concern. Perhaps more than meets the eye. Beyond providing urban hukou for ruralites to reduce disparity gap, or simply dafang to prevent real estate bubble pop.

As mentioned earlier, many Chinese home buyers take out mortgages and loans for real estate speculation whatnot. These mortgages account for rising share of household income. For lower-income families, around 40% of income is earmarked to cover these mortgages. Nearly a quarter for the middle-income.

The '19 urbanization plan may be just one of the vehicles to buck this trend.

China’s household consumption’s share of GDP has been slumping at an alarming rate. Unlike household consumption expenditures, over abundance of household assets in real estate may not spur economic growth. White elephant ghost towns of high residential vacancies due to speculations do not generate thriving business activities.

Moreover, household assets in real estate also means less are saved. Declining savings rate reduces capacity for state-run banks to loan infrastructure projects to boost GDP and sell global influence, such as the BRI.

Aforementioned loans from nonbank financial lenders (via apps) are becoming increasingly popular, which also undermines the reach of state-run banks. More Chinese are importing luxury or travelling abroad by borrowing from such online lenders, thus exacerbating rates of household debt to GDP.

Furthermore, given China’s fast-aging population, income growth continually shrink as savings are extracted for retirement. Given less capacity to stock up on U.S Treasury foreign exchange reserves to limit U.S. interest rates, depleted savings translates to a rising Yuan. A big no no from Chinese economists' POV.

The future of China's hegemonic aspirations is at stake. That, imo, is the true pink elephant.

JanJal (1050 posts) • 0

@satii: "reason I asked about primary education is because this may be a concern for the majority of rural families (aspiring or established) that move to cities. If their children can't even attend K-12 due to hukou restrictions"

Ok, but there are no new policies (that I know) that would completely remove hukou restrictions for rural families with young children that want to move to cities - not in cities as big as Kunming.

Only group for which all hukou restrictions are required to be removed (in cities with <5m population), are fresh graduates and other educated "preferred migrants", to make their transition to urban hukou (or equal rights) easier - they don't necessarily need to buy property in city anymore. My point in housing market was limited to this segment.

satii (80 posts) • 0

Attempting to steer this "let [it] fly" discussion back on flight path, and return it to the runway, let me add...

a potential Kunming property market Hindenburg disaster will be averted as long as the lifting of hukou requirements won't entail K through 12. Status quo of speculative buying would remain, though slightly dented by the removal of hukou barriers for tertiary education per '19 urbanization plan.

As supply overtakes demand, apartment rents will remain low for the likes of OP.

Upcoming 5-year plan will be a delicate balancing act between cooling or infusion of heat to release air in keeping our metaphorical, non-hydrogen hot-air balloon afloat and moving on intended course. Adjusting its elevation would depend on the direction of wind & airflow (the external factors).

If trade war impasse was to continue for years and China's GDP taking greater hits, we may witness greater release of air in the proverbial property blimp by removing more substantial hukou requirements to curb non-bank lending/mortgage-based speculative buying. One of the weapons to shore up household consumption/savings and state bank warchest to stimulate the economy.

DanDare (87 posts) • 0

Returning to the original topic 'flight path" of Average Rent for Small Apartment?".
How much rent are people on here, living in 1-2 bedroom downtown apartments, paying?

Anonymous Coward (328 posts) • 0

The price of property in Kunming has basically doubled in the last 5 years. The price of rent is definitely on the rise. I have a small 60m^2 two bedroom apartment between the first and second ringroads in a bombed out old building. The average rent for this unit without furnishings is 1500/month.

Yesterday (in Shandong) my office landlord raised my rent by 35%. This is nothing compared to my friend in the same community. Their landlord doubled their rent.

I watched rent double in the South of Lijiang in only 18 months.

In my opinion, in the near future it will be difficult to get a 2 bedroom apartment for under 2000 a month in 3rd tier+ cities (unless it's a really undesirable place). Kunming actually has super low rent for a capital city.

The_Dude (13 posts) • 0

I've recently been apartment hunting. A 1 bedroom (not studio) inside the second ring road averages from 1900 in a new high rise to 1400 in an older building with no elevator. Prices obviously vary according to location, whether it is facing south and condition.

It's possible to find a place for less of you're willing to rent a ground floor unrenovated olderplace with limited public transport that's facing North.

bhamast (2 posts) • 0

Hey everyone, thanks for all the information!

I know things change so quickly. After 5 years it will be interesting to see the differences in Kunming both in terms of daily life but also construction and new infrastructure.

There's not a particular location

I'm interested in - just in general wondering what the current renting situation is.

I’m not necessarily looking for the cheapest place available just something decent. From the sounds of it, with some hunting and a little bit of luck, I should be able to find something for a reasonable price.
I had forgotten about the tendency ask for rent in advance so thank you for reminding me of that. Definitely something to be prepared for haha.

satii (80 posts) • 0

bhamast, I've mentioned elsewhere that 58同城 and Anjuke may be useful resources for apartment hunting. Various toggle tools are at your disposal to filter listings. Touching base with landlords directly may serendipitously nullify one month in rent in 中介费. Granted agents may disguise as 业主/房东 for clickbaiting, so be wary of that.

Those seeking to lease may also find said avenues quicker in reaching suitable tenants than would commissioning real estate agents whose main prerogative is purchases, if not ascertaining potential buyers/sellers for future transactions. Highly recommend leaving agencies your secondary phone number to avoid year round hassling.

AC wrote: "The price of property in Kunming has basically doubled in the last 5 years."

Which area or specific community/compound/development(s) in Kunming have doubled in five?

Perhaps special cases, like sought after locations that finally got 房产证 greenlight after a decade of red tape holdup.

According to anjuke asking price data, in 2019 thus far, average Kunming property prices increased just ~750yuan per sqm. A very modest 5.6% rise for the year.

This estimation is on par with market observation and hearsay, with moderate annual deviations compared to previous year-on-year.

Source: km.anjuke.com/market/

Anonymous Coward (328 posts) • 0

I'm mostly referring to Wuhua, or Kunming Proper. I can't tell you about Chenggong, but the average price in Wuhua in early 2015 was 8000, and now it's 14000.

Here. Use this.

mobile.anjuke.com/fangjia/km/

I can only speculate, but think the subway construction might have something to do with it. That's why I bought in the first place. Line 4 and 5 will open next year, so I don't think prices or rent will go lower.

tigertigerathome (102 posts) • 0

Yes, the subway lines will have made a difference. There was a property survey, in Tokyo, in the late 80s or early 90s that showed a huge jump in property values that were within 500m of a subway station once it opened. Manchester, England, also saw a jump in rents and property prices along the routes of the trams, when they opened.

There are still several subway lines yet to open. I would expect large increases in rent and property prices along these routes as well.

I know of an area in Shanghai, where property prices doubled in 2 years after they opened the metro line.

Login to post Register to post