@nnoble
Yeah - my opinions get out of hand when they turn towards US-China-Japan relationships - but the prospect of war, the ability to evaluate that is also within my list of professional responsibilities - political risk is a management responsibility as it is a project risk if we work with japanese or US vendors. An embargo or trade barrier can result in work, project, or product stoppage - which is not accounted for in most project plans and is vaguely alluded to in contracts - but it doesn't resolve the issue of - the project is now at risk for an indefinite period of time (usually months, to years). Project and investment are interchangeable terms in this communique.
Risk management means we have to look at worst case scenario feasible risks and have continuity of operations plans (COOPs) and Disaster Recovery Plans (DRPs). Delays cost money. Interruptions of service cost money.
As a professional - I am not permitted the luxury of "oops, I didn't know, who could've known" and derivate excuses, such as act of god or war (force majeur clauses in most contracts).
I am required to manage and control the business regardless of force majeur, such as war, in any of its forms or manifestations.
Most project, accounting, and finance mission critical issues don't suddenly manifest themselves like massive shattering earthquakes - they are the result of a constant pattern of mundane but irregular minutia. The USA flying military sorties into disputed airspace and ramping up its military forces and manpower with accompanying hostile rhetoric is absolutely NOT a minute detail.
In China especially - businesses or business projects must be compliant with government policy (or we will try to create new policy - but that's time consuming and risky) and requires a dearth of government approvals from a plethora of disparate departments. This is reality and must be managed and controlled, with mitigation strategies in the event of blockage, to include ejecting or abandoning the project in that location.
As for bending - absolutely. I'll bend, warp, and break reality to get things done - pursuant to don't lie, don't cheat, and don't steal, with the caveats that if I lie - I'll GENERALLY tell you upfront what is the lie and what is the truth. If I cheat - I'll tell you upfront how I'm going to legally cheat, and if I steal - I'll tell you upfront how I'm going to legally steal - all for legal mutual financial benefit, while providing social responsibility and minimal carbon footprint (environmental impact).
Am I full of myself - yeah, absolutely, My pompous bluster makes British royalty blush and look away in shame. However, I've 100% protected my investment banks and those long-term relationships from loss precisely because I pay attention to minutiae, behavioral abnormalities, and political risk. I've NEVER lost an investment to a project and I have no intention of that ever happening - and THAT is bankable and financeable, with a proven track record.