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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

Just a few hours ago, Trevor Noah interviewed Dr. Anthony Fauci, the immunologist and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The medical figurehead we often see at White House press briefings.

At the 5:32 minute mark, Dr. Fauci states that a young and healthy person could be asymptomatic, but "then you could infect another person, who would then infect a vulnerable person, who would then die:"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8

For those without VPN, like lemon, you can download the informative 13:23 minute interview here:

send.firefox.com/[...]

The cautionary language of science speak (e.g. "could," "suggesting," "potentially," or "possibly") takes into account potential errors of data interpretations due to uncertainties and deviations of lab settings versus real world environment. On the opposite spectrum, politicians convey their authority with words of absolute assurance with less accountability to the truth.

The Cornell University medical school physician who served under six consecutive U.S. presidents, also mentioned the aerosolization of the virus, allowing it to suspend for at least hours as a form of transmission risk when asked by Trevor Noah if facemasks should be worn. The Daily Show host asked insight questions throughout this highly recommended interview.

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

lemon wrote, "Personally I think test positive cases should be included in the total positive case number."

So we both agree that citizens who've contracted the virus and have tested positive, should be included in the official tally despite showing no symptoms of illness.

As mentioned above, tens of thousands of patients WERE tested positive for Covid-19 but were intentionally left out from reporting. If these positive test result cases are unaccounted for at present and in foreseeable future, how can we definitively pronounce "near zero discovery of home grown positive cases?" Or proclaim "Wuhan now already for days being new cases free?"

How can we accurately access "flat-line of curve" if we discount these empirical data with the knowledge that positive carriers who do not show symptoms may still harbor low viral load? As above-posted study pointed out, "an infected individual who never developed symptoms but shed a similar amount of virus to those who did." Meaning, they can still possibly infect others without showing symptoms.

You also mentioned that "testing was done because they were in close contact with a person who was tested because they showed symptoms."

I argue contact tracing may become more challenging as lockdowns are lifted, such as in Wuhan. Undetected asymptomatic carriers are now free to roam outside their two-month containment zones of near proximity traceable clusters. Yet now, movements to transport hubs en route to other cities and provinces compound the difficulties of contact tracing as conducted previously during stringent lockdown. To say nothing of testing/reporting transparency of migrant workers in rural versus urban China.

That is my main concern with discrepancy of reporting standards (and rates estimations) in light of economic normalcy of 1.4 billion free flowing movements.

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

lemon, madly in love with state media Chinadaily news aren't you? The tricky part is that by the end of February, "43,000 people in China had tested positive for COVID-19 without immediate symptoms" according to above SCMP article. Three studies below show why rounding up asymptomatic carriers for quarantine may be challenging as lockdowns are being lifted:

1. This study details the "case of an infected individual who never developed symptoms but shed a similar amount of virus to those who did."

www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2001737

2. This study suggests "there were 37,400 people with the virus in Wuhan who authorities did not know about, and who had mild or no symptoms but could still be contagious."

doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593

3. This study "showed people had high levels of the virus in throat swabs early in their illness, when their symptoms were mild, meaning the disease could easily be spread through coughs or sneezes."

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1

Source: World Economic Forum
www.weforum.org/[...]

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Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus

China's National Health Commission (NHC) has unique ways of tallying confirmed cases that are different from world standards:

"Since February, the Covid-19 prevention and control policies issued by the NHC have stipulated that asymptomatic infected individuals are not considered “confirmed cases” and that their numbers should not be released.

However, given numerous studies suggesting that this group is infectious, the NHC has required that, once detected, they be subject to a 14-day quarantine and lab testing, recategorizing them as “confirmed” cases only in the event they develop symptoms.

Caixin previously obtained data that showed Northeast China’s Heilongjiang province had 480 “confirmed cases” on Feb. 25, but had also discovered 104 asymptomatic infected individuals that it left off the public tally.

A March 6 preprint – a study that has not yet been peer-reviewed – by Chinese and American researchers suggested that asymptomatic cases and those with mild symptoms could account for at least 59% of Covid-19 infections, potentially undetected and fueling its spread."

www.caixinglobal.com/[...]

This may be a big deal given one third of confirmed cases may be silent carriers, where "people who are infected by the new coronavirus but show delayed or no symptoms... according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post:"

www.scmp.com/[...]

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