So I went to the spring real estate fair. Tiny and depressing. Forgot if it's spring that always sucks, anyways nothing like fall.

How has the Kunming real estate market been recently? Price and transactions down or up? Sales hot or slow?

It's hard to say. I get the impression it's not easy to sell, but at the same time I haven't noticed a decline in prices.

I've heard that prices are slightly down from last year as supply has increased greatly and demand hasn't kept up. Could be the start of the great crash coming in the next couple of years. When people work out that there is gigantic oversupply of apartments in China, they are going to panic sell, and the market price will collapse. The only way I can see out of it is for the government to order a nationwide bulldozing frenzy of any apartment building over 15 years old, but that policy is not going to be popular with people who like living in their old 7 story buildings (a lot of people!).

I moved to a newer apartment recently but my old apartment wasn't bad and it only had 6 stories

National bulldozing frenzy a bad way to go - as if we don't have one already.

It basically comes down to a choice: economic collapse, or bulldoze the older buildings. They can save the investments of the middle classes, or the working classes old homes (which at some point will have to be either renovated or destroyed anyway), probably not both. Bear in mind that almost all party officials have at least 2 apartments, and many have dozens, and its obvious what decision they will make. Of course, this dilemma could have been avoided by only allowing enough apartments to meet demand, but it's far too late for that now. Note; I am only talking about urban areas here, not rural villages.

If you don't believe me, walk around any newish 小区 and see how many people are actually living there compared with how many could live there.

The prices are definitely down but that is not stopping them from building more. People are not buying as much. A Chinese friend of mine can sell his apartment because as he says："people aren't buying". I think they are waiting for it to go even cheaper.

I assume you mean can't?

OK, but somebody's got to provide housing at a price the residents of older housing can afford, or you're going to have more than economic collapse.