GoK was once lively, contentious, at times abusive but also interesting, entertaining and always informative. The goal of harmony resulted in policy of forced moderation and eventual censorship. Only approved opinions and discourse was allowed. As the hand on the tiller grew heavier, GoK lost the wind.
Sorry for getting nautical but I bought a home less than a kilometer from the ocean in California and have been relaxing, enjoying my dotage, sailing, and the Kunming like weather here. I miss China and Kunming. American food is boring.
In the US we are being told that getting vaccinated will end the supply chain problem. Biden’s Energy secretary Jennifer Granholm on skyrocketing prices of goods:
"[Economists say] there is a transitory nature to the inflation problem…We wanna make sure we get everybody vaccinated so we can unclog the bottlenecks that we’ve been seeing.”
Found an interesting video (48 min) on the COVID pandemic and the vaccines being pushed. The mRNA vaxx are still experimental and controversy is raging on who should get the shot. I got the two Pfizer shots as I am 78 with additional high risk problems.
This is the link and there are many (100+ ?) links to additional resources.
You are seriously wrong in thinking "They would have never begun... unless they knew...." First of all, the Metro is a prestige project which immediately puts "profit" on a remote back burner out of sight never to be seriously considered. The "profit" in this type of project in the construction, materials and labor so all that money only exists if the thing is built.
The process of calculating either payback, ROI, or even profit is a pretty straight forward.Usually, they do a NPV (Net Present Value) calculation based on a myriad of assumptions, guesses, wishes and a few facts. As all of these things are also based on an additional myriad of assumptions, guesses, wishes and a few facts. One key component is "ridership" which is a guess, usually a well calculated, detailed SWAG (Scientific Wild Assed Guess) but a guess nonetheless. Not to bore the analytically challenged each guess in this pile of guesses, and a few facts, has a range, low to high. The guy who cranks the algorithm knows what the Boss wants so will skew all the little guesses to ensure the big final guess gives the Boss what he/they want. They want a subway. The subway will be justified with numbers. My favorite BS component is "contribution to the general economic growth of _____." You can fill in the location, Kunming, Yunnan or California.
A subway is built because it is wanted not because it would make money. It is wanted by the power elites so they can pat their own backs. It is wanted by capitalists who will bid low and will trust the power guys to ante up to keep the project going. Lots of money to share in 300,000,000,000 yuan.
Note: This is not a Chinese thing. This has been going on in the U.S. for a long time.
As long as there is something to tear down and build or rebuild, two things are going on. First, GDP goes up and as a tool for rating government officials you just can't beat impressive, never ending, visible projects adding jobs and boosting GDP.
Second, tearing down and building is where the money is. There is a lot of opportunity to make and pass money around. When you figure in what can be skimmed by using substandard materials then making more money to do it again. well, why would anyone want to stop?
Beijing Lu is a goldmine. Seems to me that there was a lot of repaving done before the Metro project started. Then just as the Metro blue walls came down beautification began. Beautification is pretty near complete, lots of trees have been cut down, but now holes, square red puddles where there were trees, and trenches across street and walk ways make walking muddy and hazardous.
Did you notice the tremendous improvement in the blue walls? No longer blue metal sheets attached to stakes, now, a cement footing is topped with aluminum framed blue composite panels. Reusable? Nope. Salvaged for sure but clearly intended for one time use.
I would not expect Kunming City to be on the hook for repaying the loans. More likely, one or several entities have been set to borrow the money and operate the subway. In Beijing, a line could be operated by a company. So Line 1 might be operated by "KM Metro Line 1 Company", and so on.
But the more interesting way to look at how the loans will be serviced is looking at required riders. The operating company has two sources of revenue, riders or operating revenue and advertising. In Beijing some lines lose money operating but adverts are enough to let them be profitable.
In the aggregate, loans totaling 300 Billion yuan, for 30 years, at say 3.0% interest, would require about 15 Billion yuan in yearly payments on a fully amortized basis. If operating expenses are 100 million yuan per day, it would take more than 140 million riders per week at 2 yuan to break even.
How many people live in Kunming?
Anyway, you can expect to see lots of advertising in the Metro.
The recent flooding here reminded me of similar flooding in Beijing and Los Angeles. It seems the onset of seasonal heavy rains results in underpass flooding. In Los Angeles and Beijing, part of the problem is the accumulation of trash in storm drains. The volume and force of the rain moves the trash until it collects and restricts water flow. In both L.A. and Beijing, in the days following flooding, crews were busy opening drains fishing out trash. In subsequent weeks, flooding seems to diminish.
I agree with tigertiger's analysis of contributing factors. I would also suggest the rapid construction throughout Kunming impedes and diverts natural runoff paths resulting in unplanned volumes of runoff showing up in unplanned locations.
Be aware they will push whatever they are selling. Some of the staff have no idea about the technical side of appliances.
I went there to buy a stove. I repeatedly told them I would be using bottled gas. They sold me a stove. When I went to my local gas guy, I learned there are at least three kinds of gas sold. Luckily, B&Q did not deliver as promised. I went back to the store and discovered they had sold me a stove they needed to be hooked up to the gas main. I got my money back.
The sales lady was almost in tears, 没有问题！I don't know if it a safety or design issue, but I would think B&Q would know and care.
Subway starts at 9am. I have no idea where to catch an airport express bus. Eight taxis refused to go to the airport. After almost an hour standing on Beijing Lu took a black taxi, this dude drives slower than my mother, 120 yuan.
Flight back was delayed so I learned the subway stops running at 6:10pm.
Getting a taxi back was easy, more taxis than customers. Taxi was 87 yuan including 1o yuan toll, airport to Beichen area. Yes, he took a longer route than necessary.
Kunming imagines being a gateway for international travelers. New airport but hard to get to and from it.
Around Town: China's last narrow gauge passenger train
发布者Anyone know if this train is still operating?
Kunming's metro could cost 300 billion yuan
发布者@HFCAMPO
You are seriously wrong in thinking "They would have never begun... unless they knew...." First of all, the Metro is a prestige project which immediately puts "profit" on a remote back burner out of sight never to be seriously considered. The "profit" in this type of project in the construction, materials and labor so all that money only exists if the thing is built.
The process of calculating either payback, ROI, or even profit is a pretty straight forward.Usually, they do a NPV (Net Present Value) calculation based on a myriad of assumptions, guesses, wishes and a few facts. As all of these things are also based on an additional myriad of assumptions, guesses, wishes and a few facts. One key component is "ridership" which is a guess, usually a well calculated, detailed SWAG (Scientific Wild Assed Guess) but a guess nonetheless. Not to bore the analytically challenged each guess in this pile of guesses, and a few facts, has a range, low to high. The guy who cranks the algorithm knows what the Boss wants so will skew all the little guesses to ensure the big final guess gives the Boss what he/they want. They want a subway. The subway will be justified with numbers. My favorite BS component is "contribution to the general economic growth of _____." You can fill in the location, Kunming, Yunnan or California.
A subway is built because it is wanted not because it would make money. It is wanted by the power elites so they can pat their own backs. It is wanted by capitalists who will bid low and will trust the power guys to ante up to keep the project going. Lots of money to share in 300,000,000,000 yuan.
Note: This is not a Chinese thing. This has been going on in the U.S. for a long time.
Metro Line 1 begins passenger trial period
发布者Think of the subway as a money train.
As long as there is something to tear down and build or rebuild, two things are going on. First, GDP goes up and as a tool for rating government officials you just can't beat impressive, never ending, visible projects adding jobs and boosting GDP.
Second, tearing down and building is where the money is. There is a lot of opportunity to make and pass money around. When you figure in what can be skimmed by using substandard materials then making more money to do it again. well, why would anyone want to stop?
Beijing Lu is a goldmine. Seems to me that there was a lot of repaving done before the Metro project started. Then just as the Metro blue walls came down beautification began. Beautification is pretty near complete, lots of trees have been cut down, but now holes, square red puddles where there were trees, and trenches across street and walk ways make walking muddy and hazardous.
Did you notice the tremendous improvement in the blue walls? No longer blue metal sheets attached to stakes, now, a cement footing is topped with aluminum framed blue composite panels. Reusable? Nope. Salvaged for sure but clearly intended for one time use.
I call that GDP enhancing "innovation."
Kunming's metro could cost 300 billion yuan
发布者I would not expect Kunming City to be on the hook for repaying the loans. More likely, one or several entities have been set to borrow the money and operate the subway. In Beijing, a line could be operated by a company. So Line 1 might be operated by "KM Metro Line 1 Company", and so on.
But the more interesting way to look at how the loans will be serviced is looking at required riders. The operating company has two sources of revenue, riders or operating revenue and advertising. In Beijing some lines lose money operating but adverts are enough to let them be profitable.
In the aggregate, loans totaling 300 Billion yuan, for 30 years, at say 3.0% interest, would require about 15 Billion yuan in yearly payments on a fully amortized basis. If operating expenses are 100 million yuan per day, it would take more than 140 million riders per week at 2 yuan to break even.
How many people live in Kunming?
Anyway, you can expect to see lots of advertising in the Metro.
Photos of flash flooding in Yunnan's capital
发布者The recent flooding here reminded me of similar flooding in Beijing and Los Angeles. It seems the onset of seasonal heavy rains results in underpass flooding. In Los Angeles and Beijing, part of the problem is the accumulation of trash in storm drains. The volume and force of the rain moves the trash until it collects and restricts water flow. In both L.A. and Beijing, in the days following flooding, crews were busy opening drains fishing out trash. In subsequent weeks, flooding seems to diminish.
I agree with tigertiger's analysis of contributing factors. I would also suggest the rapid construction throughout Kunming impedes and diverts natural runoff paths resulting in unplanned volumes of runoff showing up in unplanned locations.