Forums > Living in Kunming > New Coronavirus
Janjal the answer on your question is not easy because one has to understand the underplaying reasoning of various governments. In general China thinks it still can manage society while in most western countries they have realised that they cannot and therefore concluded that they have to accept that Covid-19 is here to stay. There are countless examples of the failure of social distancing that failed in the western world while in China it largely did work. China as well had a track record of, at the end, stamping out SARS, and the lessons learned from that were put in to practise now. Few other countries took serious lessons from that.
Different to European counties, China had as well the spare capacity to draw from a fast country to deal with what in the end was basically a regional problem.
There are three ways to overcome Covid-19 : Number 1, and the best, is a working vaccine. Two and three are an effective medical cure and heard immunity. China believes that by applying effective control measures it will buy enough time to develop a vaccine. Given the emergency they don’t have any problem with fast tracking vaccine development. In western countries this is more problematic because of medical standards and ethics.
Trump thinks a miracle cure is possible and puts all his hopes on new and old medicines. In Europe this is considered wishful thinking.
Given the timeframe for these different scenarios some European countries realised that they didn’t have any other option then to go for heard immunity. Not because it is the best but because it is the only realistic option. One has to realise that these countries have very open societies and in practise open borders.
In my work, already a long time ago, I learned that with epidemics it is not the disease that is the problem but the collapse of the health system and the possibility of total panic. The disease is a given fact and you deal with it. Panic and collapse are much harder to deal with (and have grave consequences for the powers that be).
The main thing during an epidemic event is to flatten the curve till a level that the healthcare system and other parts of society can deal with. In China they managed to do this and South Korea is nearly there. Taking half and insufficient measures let to the situation we have now in most of the western world. I know of only one western country that had the guts to take the right measure in time and that is New Zealand (But they had plenty of time to see other countries fail.).
At the end it will be heard immunity that is created by a fast group of recovered patients and by those vaccinated that will get this disease at manageable levels like for instance the flu.
Manageable levels, by the way is what society thinks it is. Every year there are 1.5 million people dying of tuberculoses and “we” think that’s acceptable. For tuberculoses, which has been around since humans started to walk on two legs, never a vaccine was found and medical cures turn out to be only limited in their effectiveness.