@DanDare: Of course all analogies are imperfect, and hurricane evacuations are no exception. However, I think that the other factors you cite are relatively minor. This is partly because saving lives is an overriding factor (even if only in a cynical manner to mayors/governors seeking to avoid getting voted out of office in the event of a large death toll), and partly because the other factors are significantly nullified by the numbers of people who typically refuse to evacuate.

@herenow,

I think after much back-and-forth, all necessary arguments have been made on either side and there is a fair amount of literature available now for people to make sense of what's going on if they so wish to be informed. I am glad we can come to a satisfactory conclusion.

I do want to make one final observation to wrap up our conversation though. Your concern towards the current epidemic is reasonable and understandable however illogical. Back in the day, every time a slight tremor was felt, all the neighbors are abuzz about the "big one" and everyone runs out to buy a disaster aid kit, but overtime, their concern becomes diminished, they fail to maintain the disaster aid kit and become unprepared until the next tremor reminded them again. All the while, their risks to the "big one" never changed.

As I alluded to in my mentioning of prior outbreaks earlier in this thread, people were vigilant about SARS and Avian flu for a short time after containment but sure enough, everyone went back to their old ways without a care in the world when the virus, even as we speak, is still in the wild ready to strike at any moment. If the public have learnt their lesson from previous outbreaks and formed sanitary habits such as washing hands and effective sterilization of public places, then they wouldn't have to worry about this current outbreak in the first place.

The main reason I started this thread really, was not to discount the seriousness of this virus or to diminish the vigilance, be rather to point out that if we are vigilant as a society on a daily basis then we wouldn't need to be so afraid and panicked of any new outbreaks. I believe there is a correlation on why a lot of recent viral or disease outbreaks are in developing countries where sanitation standards are not as stringent and not in more developed countries.

If we are so caviler and willfully ignorant about the known dangers around us, isn't it hypocritical to then be overtly cautious when a new unknown risk crop up?

Anyway, stay warm and stay healthy.

@pideh390
Here is update #7 which addresses your concern regarding the current mortality rate being inaccurate due to a lag between hospitalization and death.

Coronavirus Epidemic Update 7: Global Health Emergency Declared, Viral Shedding
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW3xqcGidpQ

In case you cannot access the video, the long and short of it is:

1) Yes, the phenomenon you've cited is valid. Once the epidemic is over and all patients discharged, an official mortality rate will be calculated and recorded.

2) But because we are currently in the middle of the outbreak and we need a metric, however inaccurate, to measure the progression of the disease. And so, it is standard practice to use current numbers as the metric.

3) Based on past experiences, during an outbreak where tests kits might be in limited quantities (as is the case here), those that died will be tested to help track the disease and thus is prone to be more accurate, although still under counted. Only those that are very sick or have prolonged symptoms will be tested, that leaves the strong possibility that there is a large percent of cases where people just weren't sick enough to be tested and get better on their own without being hospitalized. And so, the true current morality rate is very likely to be lower and not higher than the calculated mortality rate.

4) The change in mortality rate is more important than the actual number. In other words, if the mortality rate holds steady at 2.2%, when the final mortality rate is calculated at the conclusion of the epidemic it might be somewhere in the range of 1.1% ~ 4.4%, it is very unlikely to jump up to 10% or 20%

5) A recent case in Germany involved a Chinese women from Wuhan in town for a company meeting. She infected 2 people and 1 of the 2 initial victims in turn infected two more for a total of 4. While all 5 patients develop symptoms, they did not require hospitalization.

Another point outside the scope of the video. The mortality rate I've been mentioning throughout this thread is the mortality of hospitalizations and not of the disease. Using this metric, the morality rate of flu is (61K death / 810k hospitalizations) 7.5%

With an official number of suspected cases standing at 15,238, the morality rate of the virus so far is (213 / (9810+15238)) 0.85%

Hope this puts your mind at ease.

OK, we have heard all sides of a particular argument and have come full circle now. The discussion is coming up with nothing new, apart from speculative attempts to debunk sources, and data.

If you have updated information or something new to add, feel free to contribute.

I have no recollection of the 2009 Swine Flu being as bad as it evidently was... www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

"In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season,"
time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/

2017-2018 season was worse. An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu.In previous seasons, flu-related deaths have ranged from a low of about 12,000 during the 2011-2012 season to a high of about 56,000 during the 2012-2013.
www.cnn.com/[...]
Nothing new in the flu.

In the next 10 days, by Feb 10th, you will begin to see the recovery numbers increase.

By Feb 20th, the recovery numbers begin to out pace the new cases. The mortality rate will remain under 3%.

People get sick and some die. The majority survive, get better, and life goes on. So says the Geezer on Jan 31, 2020.

@Geezer
You may be right (I hope).

I just checked the live update site that was linked from GoKunming and noted that the number of "cures" exceeded deaths for the first time.

Let's hope that pattern continues.

Edit, a few hours later.
The numbers have now reversed themselves and deaths are back to exceeding "cured".

I expect to see the cured number rising much more rapidly than it has in previous days.

***topic tidied up***

***topic tidied up***
A pointless competitions, disputes or conflict, will be deleted from this thread.