GoKunming Forums

Keep Calm and Carry on

Geezer (1947 posts) • 0

"The respective mortality rates for SARS and MERS patients was 9.5 and 34.5 percent, far higher that for the new coronavirus, which French health minister Agnes Buzyn put at "less than five percent."

The R0 is estimated at

"1.4 to 3.8 people infected by a single patient, according to David Fisman, a professor at the University of Toronto.

Chinese scientists, however, have said that one patient, on average, will have spread the virus to 5.5 other people."

www.sciencealert.com/[...]

pideh390 (13 posts) • +1

Firstly, JanJal, please take care of yourself, wife, and daughter. Hope you manage to move freely soon. Good luck.

Trumpster, please take a moment to process the data without resistance for just one minute.

Two days ago the confirmed cases were in 6 thousand range.

This morning is 9,720*.

New patients aren't dying in two days.

This may be a critical consideration you and others have overlooked.The cases since last December may still be ongoing. Only 171* cases left hospital treated. Too early to make assumption on their final outcome.

Therefore, the denominator of the mortality fraction is compounded significantly, while numerator (deaths) stay relatively lower.

The result is a low mortality rate at this very moment.

Just stating facts in calm manner. Not fear mongering. Mods, please be impartial to both sides of argument.

*
3g.dxy.cn/[...]

Trumpster (84 posts) • +1

@herenow

You've made a lot of good points, most of which I have already provided a counter point in my previous arguments so I will not remunerate them again, interested parties can go back and re-read them.

It is your right, of course, to feel concerned and take what precautions you feel necessary to protect yourself and your loved ones, my purpose here is not to convince you otherwise, only to provide a logical justification on why I have not bought into the panicked yet. If there is any personal agenda hidden in all of this then it is the slight annoyance felt from the inconvenience brought on by the travel restrictions and the heavy handedness in which policies have been implimented.

There are, however, are some factual inconsistencies and logical fallicies that I feel require further ananlysis. The first one being the currently calculated mortality rate of 213 deaths out of 9720 confirmed cases, is still consistent with the 2.2% that is holding throughout. SARS and MERS was roughly at 10% and 33% respectively as Geezer pointed out above.

Further more, to compare this epidemic to the SARS epidemic as being more serious is a strawman argument given that only 8000 cases were diagnosed. Using this low bar then, there are a plethora of disease that meet this threshold and we should be equally be concerned and panicked over those.

One final analysis, much of the fear and hysteria surrounding the current epidemic is mostly due to the initial overexposure by the media and subsequent public reaction. Imagine a tally board showing the number of confirmed flu cases inching up minute by minute and waking up to an ever increasing death toll of the flu and you might come to the same conclusion that this flu season is very serious, much more serious than SARS.

As an aside, to use your hurricanes analogy, as a matter of public policy and safety, there needs to be a balance between an imminent threat and the economic disruption that results from any policy enacted. Cities are evacuated based on the known, assessed strength and the imminence of the danger. An evaluation order will not be issued if the strength of the hurricane is undetermined or speculative, and the breadth of possible landfall is too broad.

DanDare (119 posts) • 0

Hurricane evacs may not be the best example. The decision to evacuate for hurricanes is not just about health and safety risks. Other factors include the increased cost and complexity of clean up if people may or may not be buried under the broken buildings, and law and order, mostly looting. If no one should be in town, by order, anyone in town can be removed, you don't even need to catch them looting. Potential for looting would be a huge distraction for cops who could be better used elsewhere managing the emergency.

Trumpster (84 posts) • +1

Here is a medical channel giving daily updates of the corona virus, while not an official source, they do cite official numbers and provide medical opinion and analysis. VPN reqiured.

And amidst all the discussion of the number of deaths, lets not lose sight of the fact that 176 patients have been cleared of the virus and discharged from the hospital.

MedCram - Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY
www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos

Coronavirus Outbreak 1: Transmission & Updates Explained
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMXSkKLg2I

Coronavirus Outbreak 2: Symptoms, Diagnosis, Treatment, & Vaccine Status
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCG3xqtcL3c

Coronavirus Outbreak 3: Spread, Quarantine, Projections, & Vaccine
www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJBYwUtB83o

Coronavirus Outbreak 4: How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment
www.youtube.com/watch?v=okg7uq_HrhQ

Coronavirus Outbreak 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN9-UXsvPBY

Coronavirus Outbreak 6: Asymptomatic Transmission & Incubation Period
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGxgNebx1pg

And here is a CNN report on the characteristics of the epidemic.

Coronavirus declared a global health emergency
www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHBOJtFK9V0

pideh390 (13 posts) • 0

@Trumpster

I side with you in living life normally, but with added vigilance. Exercising and keeping body active is still important. Over stressing is counterproductive for own immune system and emotional health. So on those points I concur.

For example, I was out the entire morning searching and feeding stray dogs and a few homeless looking for food. Public trash bins are relatively empty.

I was also feeding seagulls as well, as their source of food from tourists and regular park strollers have decreased significantly. They are hungry.

Rest assured, the city government mentioned they will continue to feed the gulls at set intervals.

Dazzer (2813 posts) • +2

the seagull are wild animals and manage to feed themselves on journeys to and from siberia, and during thier life in russia without our help. i think they will survive. but if it helps keep you calm, carry on.

jj123 (91 posts) • +2

@trumpster (horrific name :) )
Re: the vids, stumbled upon them a few days ago, I thought they did and do a very good job in a simple manner.

pideh390 (13 posts) • 0

Dazzer, frankly speaking, I'm calmer staying put at home.

The gulls along Panlong River are quite successful picking off small downstream fishes.

Not sure about Dianchi, but the gulls amassed at Green Lake (closed until further notice since 1/25) are waiting for the occasional morsels. The gull-pellet vendors are nowhere to be seen. The decades of human dependency conditioning is backfiring.

The natural supply of food sources along their migratory path is probably vastly different from this man-made lake of inner city.

herenow (354 posts) • 0

@Trumpster wrote: “Further more, to compare this epidemic to the SARS epidemic as being more serious is a strawman argument given that only 8000 cases were diagnosed. Using this low bar then, there are a plethora of disease that meet this threshold and we should be equally be concerned and panicked over those.”

The main reason that we should not be equally concerned and panicked about the plethora of other diseases is that they are known quantities for which we are relatively prepared, as I discussed here: www.gokunming.com/[...]

I don’t think that it’s a strawman to state that some aspect of the Wuhan outbreak appear to be worse than SARS – I’m just using SARS as a benchmark. It’s true that SARS is a flawed benchmark due to its relatively small scale as you say. But it seems to be the best we have given that it’s also a coronavirus, was relatively recent, and was also centered in China.

In comparing the current virus to SARS, my own very crude & unscientific takeaway is that it’s roughly a wash at this point. You have seemingly lower mortality rates on the one hand, but higher caseloads & higher potential infectiousness (due to a longer incubation period and possible asymptomatic transmission, notwithstanding similar R0 values to date) on the other hand. The lower mortality rates are somewhat reassuring, but the potential for a pandemic due to infectiousness is worrying.
(Links for statistics previously given here: www.gokunming.com/[...] )

We are fortunate that recent comparable outbreaks (SARS, MERS, avian flu) have been relatively small-scale, and that leaves nothing more severe to serve as a basis of comparison. So when I say that I’m more concerned about this outbreak than other recent ones, that translates to a moderately high level of concern, something like a 6 or 7 on a 10-point scale. (And again, part of that is due to being 800 miles away from Wuhan. If I was in the U.S., I would probably feel no more worried for my own safety than I did during SARS.)

I think we are basically in agreement about hurricane evacuations, as I meant the rubrics of “risk” and “public interest” to encompass the factors you mention. And I don’t necessarily differ with your criticism of the recent public health measures that have been taken – I don’t have the necessary training or data to make a sound judgment about that one way or the other.

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