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lemon lover (878 posts) • 0

Faohi.

I cannot open your link but your quoted part states:
“”We did not observe significantly different viral loads in nasal swabs between symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects, suggesting the same potential for transmitting the virus,” the paper said.””

Note “suggesting the same potential for transmitting the virus”. Well I suggest that that is not the case because if that was the case this group of asymptomatic people would spread the virus resulting in new symptomatic cases. Since this is not the case we can assume that asymptomatic virus positive people don’t spread thus have a RO of zero.

faohi421 (10 posts) • 0

That's because SMCP is censored here.

Despite research studies presented, you are free to believe no symptomatic cases arise from asymptomatic carriers. There are pink elephants I'm not at liberty to question here. Lets just say the powers that be agree that disruptions caused by the virus may be more threatening than the virus itself. So leave it at that.

Geezer (1926 posts) • 0

Just a note on the transmissibility of the virus.

In estimating, forecasting or, my favorite, “guessing” the transmissibility of this, or any, disease a factor is used. This factor represents the big unknown and is used in most, if not all, modeling algorithms. It is called “R subzero.”

Not “R oh.” Often it is referred to as “R zero” or ‘R naught” or simply as “R” and represents the self-sustaining human-to-human transmission, or reproduction rate, of the virus.

This reproduction number is an estimate. It will always be an estimate, or an assumption (a guess), to be used in understanding and modeling the growth and spread of a disease.

Imperial College London has a report dated January 25, 2020, “Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV” which is interesting.
www.imperial.ac.uk/[...]

faohi421 (10 posts) • 0

Long time no hear Geezer. I hope you're safely self-isolating in the States (NE?) given your elder statesman status. ;)

BoJoke (20 posts) • +1

Just a few hours ago, Trevor Noah interviewed Dr. Anthony Fauci, the immunologist and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The medical figurehead we often see at White House press briefings.

At the 5:32 minute mark, Dr. Fauci states that a young and healthy person could be asymptomatic, but "then you could infect another person, who would then infect a vulnerable person, who would then die:"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8

For those without VPN, like lemon, you can download the informative 13:23 minute interview here:

send.firefox.com/[...]

The cautionary language of science speak (e.g. "could," "suggesting," "potentially," or "possibly") takes into account potential errors of data interpretations due to uncertainties and deviations of lab settings versus real world environment. On the opposite spectrum, politicians convey their authority with words of absolute assurance with less accountability to the truth.

The Cornell University medical school physician who served under six consecutive U.S. presidents, also mentioned the aerosolization of the virus, allowing it to suspend for at least hours as a form of transmission risk when asked by Trevor Noah if facemasks should be worn. The Daily Show host asked insight questions throughout this highly recommended interview.

Mikhail_Ivanova (1 post) • 0

At a policymakers' meeting on Thursay March 26, "Chinese Premier Li Keqiang directed officials to pay close attention to asymptomatic coronavirus cases amid growing concerns symptomless people may be able to spread the virus."

www.caixinglobal.com/[...]

On that same day (March 26), a Beijing resident surnamed Lou was tested positive after showing symptoms of coughing, headache, and fever. Lou was on the same 8-hour Air China flight five days earlier from Beijing to Hangzhou. Lou contracted the virus from a student who was later tested positive to the virus but originally showed no symptoms.

Published one hour ago on CaixingGlobal (Paywall Premium content):

www.caixinglobal.com/[...]

DanDare (64 posts) • +2

Stop sensationalizing (another new alias, hmmm?).

The Caixing article in the link does NOT contain the text, "Lou was on the same 8-hour Air China flight five days earlier from Beijing to Hangzhou. Lou contracted the virus from a student who was later tested positive to the virus but originally showed no symptoms."

The article does say, "...may have been infected by an asymptomatic traveller”. May have is not definite.

CindyLi (22 posts) • 0

The student "had just flown from Germany and transited through the Netherlands before flying to Beijing."

The student was another imported case. Not local transmission. Thanks to the Chinese government's successful containment efforts, nationwide local infections have been near zero for days as data clearly show.

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