Ocean
(1193 posts) •
Very clear and informative visual summary on BBC website today (needs VPN) with latest data and graphs. Worth a look if you can:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105
-
Select language
GoKunming Forums
New Coronavirus
Ocean
(1193 posts) •
Thank you Ocean for sharing this. In part 4, the visual compares this new coronavirus with similar outbreaks in the past, such as SARS in 2003.
First, a piece from Quartz have pointed out, "during the 2003 SARS epidemic, news outlets and even the World Health Organization (WHO) initially reported fatality rates that were far lower ('only about 3%,' for example) than the ultimate overall rate of 9.6%."
Second, this outbreak is still ongoing, yet the comparative graph (part 4) gives the interpretive impression that Coronavirus is close-ended, as "cases" and "deaths" are placed side-by-side with Sars and Mers. An underestimation of 2019-nCoV's severity (mortality rate) may result.
Quartz article continues by saying,
"So far, when people have quoted a fatality rate of around 2% for the current coronavirus outbreak, they have done so by making an understandably intuitive calculation: dividing the death toll by the total number of confirmed cases. If we do this for China’s latest (Feb. 6) figures—636 deaths divided by 31,161 confirmed cases—we get what appears to be a 2% fatality rate.
But this could very well give an underestimation of the fatality rate, for a simple reason: time. Since it takes time to die from the coronavirus, and since the number of cases is growing so quickly, the number of confirmed cases on a given day will be much higher than the number of people who have been confirmed infected and progressed to death. In a similar way, any delays between someone dying and the death being reported could cause an underestimation of the fatality rate. This happened during the SARS and Ebola outbreaks, according to a paper on potential biases in calculating fatality risks published in the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. If there’s a delay in reporting deaths, then dividing total deaths by confirmed cases would mean including people who will die but haven’t yet, or have died but haven’t been reported."
Lastly, we can not keep our guards down come next week when businesses resume.
***Topic tidied up***
See posting guidelines.
Users who would like to share information published elsewhere online should include a hyperlink instead of copying text verbatim.
I think there was a hyperlink in the end, and didn't we already agree that verbatim copying is to be allowed in case some foreign links might be impossible to follow from here?
This video is on what is coronavirus, symptoms of coronavirus, coronavirus treatment and prevention. It educated me alot and gave me a better understanding.
Click on the link below and when you get to the landing page, click where it says I am not a robot’ and then you will be sent to the YouTube video that will have the steps you can take to help you with your fear.
The best part is you don’t need to buy anything just watch the video and follow the advice and tips it gives you.
Click here: shrinkme.io/LHYK3e3V
I hope it helps, all the best!
@herenow
Read an article to which I can no longer find the link, but it compared the current political environment to those in the past. The local cadres are now, in essence, competing against each other in a game of one upsmanship with their policies to please and gain favor with the central government instead of addressing the issues at hand with rational and practical measures. Past episodes resulted in vast wastes of resources and lives.
Let's hope we will not repeat those results this time around.
@Trumpster: Definitely agree. Case in point from Jiangsu:
On the somewhat-brighter side, perhaps the various measures across the country are not all for naught. From the Washington Post:
"Even as infections overwhelm the afflicted province, the rest of China may be seeing the effects of strict quarantine measures, Chinese health officials said Sunday. In all parts of China excluding Hubei, the daily number of new infections dropped from nearly 900 on Feb. 3 to 509 on Saturday, the officials said.
World Health Organization officials also say they have seen the number of new cases taper in recent days. “That's good news and may reflect the impact of the control measures put in place,” Michael Ryan, head of Who’s health emergencies program, told reporters Saturday. But he added that many patients have not yet been tested and that it remains far too early to make predictions about the number of infections."
As businesses gradually resume this week, lets look at the numbers on our home front Yunnan.
8 new confirmed cases were added today. 149 total.
Positive takeaway: 19 treated. 0 fatality.
m.weibo.cn/status/4470472907699424?
Current breakdown of cases by cities/prefecture:
45 in Kunming
15 in Xishuangbanna
14 in Yuxi
13 in Dali
12 in Zhaotong
12 in Qujing
9 in Baoshan
7 in Lijiang
6 in Honghe
5 in Dehong
4 in Chuxiong Prefecture
4 in Pu'er City
2 in Wenshan Prefecture
1 in Lincang City
Updated a few minutes ago by The Guardian, is a report from Imperial College London's (*) MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis of the Infectious Disease Epidemiology division:
via
(proxy required)
www.theguardian.com/[...]
"Summary Report 4
We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%). For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values. Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates."
(*)
"In 2019–20, Imperial [College London] is internationally ranked 9th in the QS World University Rankings, 10th in the Times Higher Education World University Rankings"
Upon entering the lobby of our residence, it seems our community has required the individual registration (via mobile phone verification) on "云南抗疫情" (Yunnan Anti-epidemic) mini program on WeChat.
Anyone else?